The Nordic Countries are in Different phases

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According to international statistics, Sweden had this Saturday 37 reported deaths per million inhabitants, Denmark 28, Norway 11, and Finland 5.  Tegnell says international comparisons of deaths are very difficult.  Different countries, even among the Nordic countries, report the causes of deaths differently.  No one knows if the differences between the Nordic countries depend of the different nations having taken different measures, according to the State Epidemiologist.

– But I just had a meeting with my Nordic colleagues, and we definitely are in different phases, he says.

Sweden is certainly a couple of weeks ahead of Finland, for example, according to Tegnell.


Cumultarive deaths for Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Sweden as reported by ECDC today

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Shift the values so that we can compare the four countries on the same phase,  The day 0 for each country is the day the cumulative number of deaths for the first time exceeded 5.  Forgot to add labels:

From up: SWE – Dark Blue, DEN — Light Blue, FIN – Red, NOR — Green

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This graph reveals something interesting about  Denmark (Light blue).  Initially the number of deaths was growing faster in Denmark than in Sweden.  But since the Danes took measures to stop the virus, they never saw the kind of exponential growth Sweden (Dark blue) is experiencing. 

The politics of the Danish Government are clearly working, unlike what Tegnell said in an interview with the DR:

Finland is indeed lagging by about 8 days.  But let’s not forget that Finland actually was the first among these countries to have a confirmed case of Covid-19, on January 29. That single case was contained.

There is an statistical illusion due to Lag in reporting, that makes it seem as though there is a slight leveling out in Sweden.  This is due to the much talked about lag.


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