TT: Only Half the Number of Deaths Reported in Sweden.

Edited May 5th, 2020
373 dead – Total number reported on  April 4th, 2020
607 dead – The corrected number from FoHM report May 5th
38% of deaths had not been reported — TT estimated 50%

The Swedish Public Health Authority (FoHM) Presents in their daily press conferences the Corona epidemic situation in Sweden, including the number of deaths.  On the 5th April, the Swedish news agency TT presented an estimate that the the actual number of deaths could be as much as twice the number reported.  The TT report was quickly redacted.

TT have emphasized that the number may be higher, as there is a lag in reporting.
Updated figures from the Swedish Public Health Agency show in retrospect that the death toll on some days has been higher than the previous data, TT’s review shows.
On March 25, a total of 42 deaths were reported, but after a subsequent revision, the figure was 97 even then. On March 26, 66 deaths were reported, but after a revision, the figure was 124.
On Saturday, a cumulative total of 373 deaths were reported in Sweden. TT wrote on Saturday morning that the actual number could be around 750 dead, if the backlog is as large as, for example, March 26.

Today’s story is a little tough to put together, there are so many angles to it. Wolf_WTF

The TT story about how there is a considerable lag in reporting of the number of deaths is consistent with the the FoHM reports.  The number reported for any given day has been increasing the following days, and has consistently continued to grow for up to two weeks. By the time the tally settles, it had been twice the intially reported number.  Everything that TT wrote was correct, except one thing:

We can use these observations to describe the present, but we cannot use them to predict the future.  

When FoHM reported that a total death toll was 100, it turned out to be 200 when the delayed cases were registered.  Given the exponential growth, it is not unreasonable to believe that today, when the reported deaths are 370, the real number might be somewhere around 700. 

Right now we can still assume that nearly all deaths have happened within a couple of weeks.  So when there is a reporting lag of about 2 weeks, the lag has a massive impact on the 1/2 ratio. This kind of reasoning will eventually have to break down — If FoHM reports, a year from now,  that the total number of deaths is 10,000 – we cannot assume that because the 14 days lag, the actual number will be 20,000. 

That said, Everything about the TT article was correct, except the conclusion that the numbers reported today were likely to double in the coming two weeks.

“On Saturday, a cumulative total of 373 deaths were reported in Sweden. TT wrote on Saturday morning that the actual number could be around 750 dead, if the backlog is as large as, for example, March 26.”  Should have been left out.  But – Everything until that line was absolutely correct. Corrected the headline should read:

TT: The cumulative death toll reported has been half the number of actual deaths.


.

2020-04-05 13_43_22-CompatWindow
there was information about upcoming deaths in connection with covid-19. The speculation about double death rates is unfounded. On Saturday, it was reported that 373 have died so far. It is unclear what that figure will look like when it is revised as confirmed deaths are counted. SVT Nyheter has been in contact with the Swedish Public Health Agency and therefore chose not to publish TT’s incorrect information

2021-12-01-08_54_12-CompatWindow_thu

SVD had an article a few hours ago that the death toll in Sweden is incorrect and can be twice as high. This has since been removed, which makes me worried if the press is really free. Would feel better if you raise the issue to clarify!
SVD
@SVD – Hey! We have contacted the Swedish Public Health Agency to try to sort out the figures. We therefore do not refer to TT’s article, which was the one SvD had published.
SVT • Ylva Larsson (April 5, 2020)


Total number of deaths leading to April 6th as reported by FoHM on April 6. 


Datum_avliden 2020-04-04 2020-05-04 Difference
2020-03-11 1 1
2020-03-12
2020-03-13 1 1
2020-03-14 1 1
2020-03-15 2 2
2020-03-16 4 2 -2
2020-03-17 1 1
2020-03-18 2 6 4
2020-03-19 7 7
2020-03-20 6 9 3
2020-03-21 4 8 4
2020-03-22 1 12 11
2020-03-23 4 11 7
2020-03-24 11 21 10
2020-03-25 6 22 16
2020-03-26 24 31 7
2020-03-27 26 32 6
2020-03-28 10 35 25
2020-03-29 8 38 30
2020-03-30 36 44 8
2020-03-31 34 49 15
2020-04-01 59 53 -6
2020-04-02 43 70 27
2020-04-03 51 78 27
2020-04-04 40 73 33
 
total 373 607 234

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